LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

With the October 31st deadline having come and gone for a contract extension for Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard both sides have seemed to have walked away from negotiations. Spurs fans are assuredly throwing their hands up at their franchise’s stubbornness in not paying the youngest finals MVP in league history (tied with Magic, 1980). Kawhi is a vital two-way player, he possesses an unrelenting motor and work ethic and he’s the definition of modest. He would seem to be the ideal piece for which the Spurs would want to build it’s future around.  As long as San Antonio’s big three are suiting up they will likely garner attention as the fulcrums of the team but many would argue San Antonio would not have been anywhere near the finals without Leonard.

            A big part of what has made San Antonio so special is that their stars have taken less to stay together. Duncan is on a contract right now paying him $10  million a year, Ginobili just resigned for $7 million, Parker who is the youngest of the three is signed through the 2017-2018 season with his biggest salary $15.4 coming in the final year. While these numbers are certainly high they are far less than any could have made had they entered into the free market of talent hungry NBA teams. They are far less than Kobe signed for just a year ago ($48 million over two years), and less than what southwest division rival Houston have paid stars like Dwight Howard ($21.4) and James Harden ($14.7), even Trevor Ariza ($8.6) is making more than Ginobili this season. It would seem that if Kawhi were to truly buy into the Spurs system he would sacrifice to allow the franchise to bring in help after Duncan and Ginobili presumably retire after this season.

            Kawhi and his people believe he is worth more, that if he were to seek a max contract he could likely obtain one in the open market, which isn’t entirely untrue. Kawhi’s talents would certainly be valuable to any team that doesn’t possess a Paul George or Lebron James. Gregg Popovich has been touting him the future of the franchise for years now, but there are those that believe Kawhi is simply a result of Pop’s system and that he wouldn’t have flourished with any other organization. Regardless of how you feel about Kawhi’s ability to work on another team it is a fact that he is extremely valuable to the Spurs and their future.

            Another interesting wrinkle in the story is the future of the NBA’s CBA and thus the league’s salary cap. The NBA’s newly signed TV deal nearly tripled the previous deal’s money causing the cap, which is figured as a percentage of the previous season’s revenue, to be projected to rise as much as $20 million in the next two seasons. This spike in money coming into the league has caused many players with the right combination of leverage and foresight to enter into free agency in two years when front offices will presumably have money burning holes in their pockets. It will certainly prove lucrative for any player who has proven their value in the previous seasons but it will also make some of the more questionable long-term deals signed this summer or next summer seem like great bargains. This though only further begs the question; what does a guy have to do to hit pay dirt in San Antonio?

            

            With Kawhi seeming to be a perfect fit for the Spurs and vice-versa it would seem like a no brainer to lock him up for the next five years, especially when a max deal would look like a great bargain for the last three of those years. So why have the Spurs insisted on playing hardball? Perhaps the organization is waiting for the contracts of Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to expire and they presumably retire, freeing up a large amount of cap space next summer. If Kawhi were to have signed an extension it would put his contract on the books for next summer digging into the possible capital the Spurs would have to go after other free agents next summer.  If the Spurs wait to sign Leonard in restricted FA, they end up matching a potentially higher max contract ($117 over five seasons) than what he was asking for this off-season ($89 mil over five seasons). By waiting though the Spurs will have the extra cash available, around $8.2 for Kawhi and then the $10.3 from Duncan’s contract and $7 from Ginobili’s, to go after another max level guy or pick up a few solid mid-tier pieces to try and fill in the holes left by Manu and Tim’s likely retirements. San Antonio could then use Leonard’s Bird rights to extend over the salary cap to resign him to a max deal.

            With some big free agents hitting the market next summer that would fit well with what the Spurs do, Paul Milsap and LaMarcus Aldridge come to mind, it makes sense that the Spurs are attempting to hoard as much cash as possible to go after another big piece to insert into their frenzied style of offense. Holding out another year will also give Kawhi a higher pay day so as long as there is no hurt feelings on either side it would seem beneficial for both parties to wait until next summer.