For the second time in four months Omer Asik has requested a trade from Houston. The first was prior to the season's start, upon the team's acquisition of Dwight Howard through free agency. Although all parties involved were willing to give it a go and see what they could make work, the two players have failed to coalesce into a complimentary force able to rule the front court. Their games are too similar; both pride themselves on their low post defense, they prefer their offensive touches to come in the low post, rebounding anchors, neither are particularly good free throw shooters, and so on. As of last Wednesday's game against Philadelphia Asik had been relegated to the bench after which he asked to be traded for the second time, in Thursday's game against the Knicks he did not play and for Saturday's game against the Nuggets Asik didn't even bother showing up to the arena.
There has been much speculation as to whether or not Howard, who turns 28 in December, has peaked as a player. Once seeming indestructible, he's suffered through knee injuries as well as a herniated vertebrae and a torn labrum in his right shoulder that stifled his play all last season. Houston still believed Howard to be worth a max contract even though they had a fairly good center in Asik already under contract. While Howard is better than Asik in almost every notable category (not FT percentage) there are areas the two compare closely in (defensive rating; Asik 103 & Howard 101 and FG%; Asik 51.7% & Howard 52.9%). Howard is averaging more minutes than Asik (35.7 mpg vs 20.7 mpg for Asik) so naturally his numbers will be higher; PPG: Howard 17.8 & Asik 5, RPG: Howard 14.2 & Asik 7.2, BPG: Howard 2.4 & Asik .6. Howard is an assured double-double but if you look at Asik's numbers from last season, before Howard, he was as well; PPG 10.1, RPG 11.7 with 1.1 BPG on 30 minutes.
Dwight Howard ranks third in the league in defensive impact (largely attributed to his 26 total blocks) while Asik, much further down the list, has a lower opponent field goal percentage 36.8% against Howard's 47.7%. The only real surprise in their statistical difference came by way of contested rebounds against uncontested rebounds. Howard ranks first in the league in rebounding opportunities but only gets 28.2% of contested (opponents within 3.5 ft) rebound opportunities. Asik, much lower number of RPG (7.2), pulls in 52.3% of contested rebounds. This is not much a reflection on Asik, but it does seem worrisome for Howard if teams start proving more combative on the glass. There is no real case to be made for Asik OVER Howard, but their contracts (Asik is making $8.3 million this year and Howard $20.3 million) help put their value into perspective. There are few players that will rival Howard in regards to ticket and jersey sales, marketability and Howard certainly keeps whatever team he's on in the dialogue.
The system in Houston has clearly fallen apart and Asik will inevitably be moved but the questions now are when and for whom? If Asik persists in neglecting his responsibilities to the Rockets (Agent Andy Miller has said "he was in no condition to perform after the demotion") it would seem to hurry along the process of moving Asik. The problem there is that Asik puts the franchise under a tremendous amount of public pressure allowing other teams to low ball the Rockets. While Asik is not one of the 20 best players in the league, he would be a tremendous asset to any team, especially a team he would start for as is his desired destination. Houston is certainly aware of this and shouldn't feel pressure to move him for just anyone.
The assumption is that Daryl Morey and the rest of the Rockets organization will wait until December 15th to make a move, when free agents signed over the summer become eligible for trade, in hopes of widening their offers. The popular choice thus far seems to be Ryan Anderson who played well with Howard in Orlando and would start at power forward in Houston. Anderson averaged just above 16 ppg the past two seasons, and 6.4 rpg last season and 7.7 the year before. Anderson and Asik make close to the same salary so it would be an even trade in that regard but Asik is notably better at defense with a defensive rating of 103 to Anderson's 112 from last season (although it is worth noting Anderson averaged a DRtg of 103.3 during Howard's last three seasons in Orlando).
Moving Asik will not solve all of Houston's problems nor bring them any closer to contention. Houston so far has lacked a strong player that is able to play both ends of the floor well. James Harden and Jeremy Lin have shown the ability to create offense for themselves and occasionally hit the open man, but both are liabilities on the defensive end of the court. Chandler Parsons is a great small forward willing to work hard on both ends but hasn't reached the athletic ability yet to be a defensive stopper. A lot of the teams defensive problems could be effected by Houston's whirlwind offense. Lightning quick transitions, constant movement, plenty of outside shooting and cuts inside, there is no faster offense in the league. It is an offense that has shown weakness trying to work in a player who works exclusively in the low post, especially a low post player such as Howard who has had trouble moving fluidly and powerfully since his back surgery. Howard has shown improvement from last season but no longer seems capable of being a player who changes a team's culture.
Hopefully these are things the Rockets are able to recognize and don't expect Howard to be their savior or settle on a deal for Asik, who is their biggest trade asset at this point. They have some great pieces but to truly contend both Harden and Howard will have to step up and become more consistent on both ends of the floor. Howard will need to get over his problems at the free throw line in order to be a reliable crunch time option. Parsons and Lin will have to make smart defensive decisions rather than gambling for take aways to push transition points. Losing Asik will in no way help the teams defense but if players step up and play safe strong position defense it will allow for more trust and thus help movement on the defensive end. Morey will need to continue to move pieces in order to surround his stars with reliable players that can be held accountable on both ends of the floor. This season is still plenty young and much of rests on how Houston handles the Asik situation, both in regards to Houston and wherever Asik lands. There are a few teams who could make the next leap with a defensive big man like Asik and if Houston fumbles the trade return their defense and transition game could see real problems down the line.
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